Bellingcat has geolocated and verified two new videos showing the deadly strikes that hit an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) compound, as well as an adjacent school, in the city of Minab in late February.

The new videos were released by Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and show multiple missiles hitting the complex. 

One of the new videos shows the area around the school being struck, while the other shows a nearby IRGC clinic and two buildings within the IRGC facility being hit by Tomahawk missiles. 

Visual and solar analysis of the videos appears to show there was a time gap between when each was filmed, suggesting that there were at least two waves of strikes carried out in the area. 

Applying the same solar analysis techniques to social media footage that showed the school after it had been hit suggests the school was impacted during the first wave of strikes.

Previous investigations by Bellingcat and other news organisations showed a US Tomahawk missile struck the IRGC facility on Feb. 28. 

The US is the only party to the conflict to possess Tomahawk missiles.

Media reports, including from the New York Times and Reuters, have since detailed that a preliminary investigation by the US military concluded it was likely a US strike that hit the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school.

According to Iranian media, at least 175 people were killed in the attack, including children.

Analysing New Minab Videos

The first video (video one) is filmed from just over 2.5 kilometres (1.5 miles) away from the IRGC base and shows at least 10 missiles impacting the area over a period of 50 seconds.

The first explosion is visible five seconds into the video. The area around where the school was located is struck at 14 seconds. This is the fourth explosion visible in the footage.

Another structure that was damaged in the strikes is situated approximately 100 metres away from the school in the same general area. It was therefore not possible to determine which exact structure was hit from this footage alone.

The second new video (video two) was filmed approximately two kilometres southeast of the school, and is of a higher quality than video one. This video shows three Tomahawk missiles in the moments before impact.

Video two includes annotations and pauses when each Tomahawk appears on screen. 

A frame-by-frame analysis also shows what appear to be two minor visual glitches where some frames are transposed and annotations were added, highlighting when missiles can be seen.

The second impact seen in video two is the same as seen in footage released by Iranian media in early March, and previously reported on by Bellingcat and others, only from a different perspective.

Video two also only shows the southern part of the base, with its northern section not visible. The school is located on the northern edge of the base and is therefore not visible in video two.

Bellingcat asked the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs why only part of the strike, as seen in video one, was released and if there was a longer version that may show further impacts. We did not receive a response before publication.

Bellingcat also asked the US Department of Defense whether it had any further information on the strike since its reported preliminary findings. It referred us to CENTCOM, which said: “We have nothing for you on this. The investigation is still ongoing.”

Geolocating the Videos

Bellingcat was able to geolocate and verify video one by tracing sightlines on satellite imagery to determine the camera’s location and identify objects such as buildings, trees and a water tower within the IRGC facility. 

According to this analysis, video one was most likely filmed from an electric substation southeast of the school.

Once all key elements were identified and geolocated, we analysed each explosion that can be seen in the footage. 

Fourteen seconds into video one, the fourth impact appears to hit the area immediately around the school, which was approximately 200 meters behind a water tower. 

While the school was walled off and outside the IRGC facility, the water tower and another building (situated between the school and the water tower) are located within it.

Due to the relatively small distance between the school and the other IRGC building (roughly 100m), it was not possible to determine what structure was hit at the moment of the strike visible in video one.

More information, such as obtaining the entire strike video sequence, would be needed to fully determine which structure was hit in this footage. However, social media footage captured at the scene does suggest that the school was hit around this time.

For video two, we stitched together a rough panorama of what could be seen in the footage. 

This made it possible to match up multiple buildings visible southeast of the IRGC base and school, while also building rough sightlines to show which part of the base was being filmed.

Bellingcat was able to narrow down the areas hit by the three missiles seen in video two by comparing it with the point of view of a short video released in early March, showing a Tomahawk hitting the complex, as well as with what could be seen in video one. Post-strike satellite imagery also helped confirm the buildings that were hit in the footage. 

We were thus able to determine that video two shows an IRGC clinic and two buildings within the IRGC compound being hit.

Time of the Strikes

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has claimed that two waves of strikes occurred. 

Initial analysis did suggest that video one and two appeared to be filmed at different times as the strikes visible in each clip cannot be synced up. 

Solar data also gives clues as to the time each was taken, suggesting that there was a time gap of at least an hour between the strikes seen in the two videos.

According to the New York Times, the strikes were first reported on social media just after 11:30 am.
Solar data, derived by the direction of shadows visible in video one and simulated via the SunCalc platform, appears to indicate it was filmed between 10:30 and 11:30am.

Analysing the shadows seen in the earlier March video using the same method, appears to show that it was filmed between 13:30 and 14:30. 

This would seem to indicate that video two and the earlier March video were likely filmed after video one.

Solar data from a video posted to Telegram showing the smouldering school, and damage to the nearby IRGC building about 100m away, shows that it was recorded around the time of the first video.

This, therefore, appears to confirm that the school was impacted before the wave of attacks seen in video two.

Iranian media previously released images of munition remnants they claim they recovered from the school. 

Bellingcat was not able to verify where the remnants were originally found, but was able to identify them as Tomahawk missile remnants. The New York Times also confirmed this identification by matching the contract number on a remnant to a contract for the Tomahawk missile.

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Bellingcat’s Carlos Gonzales, Jake Godin and Trevor Ball contributed research to this article.

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