The cybersecurity landscape of 2026 is stronger than ever with countless security resources and protective tools. Despite robust defenses at anyone’s fingertips, common phishing scams and spoofing attacks remain an ongoing issue. Unfortunately, the reality is that these attacks aren’t disappearing; they’re simply evolving.

While we cannot surely predict the future statistics of these types of attacks, data from the past five years showcases similar trends, despite advances in security technologies. In 2025, the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) reported that phishing emails are associated with more than 90% of successful cyberattacks. Even though overall numbers of phishing attacks have slightly decreased, their effectiveness in terms of monetary assets stolen has increased [PDF]. But why is this the case? Why are these tactics still effective even with elevated defenses?

The Psychology of Phishing

Phishing is a multifaceted cybercrime that has evolved extensively. Attackers are constantly advancing their techniques with any means available, resulting in more targeted and stealthier intrusions. There is no solid indicator on what ensures that a phishing attack will be successful. However, a variety of tactics all revolve around the same common avenue: the human element.

In her Threat Vector feature, Palo Alto Networks Consultant Sama Manchanda details how attackers use psychological theories to ensure maximum effectiveness when targeting their potential victims. There are three main stages:

• The Bait: Attackers first research victims to discover exactly what will attract them
• The Hook: They deliver attractive information designed to grab the victim’s attention
• The Catch: Once the victim engages by performing an action (e.g., clicking a link or entering credentials), the compromise is initiated

These stages provide the blueprint of how attackers exploit human emotions in order to bypass defenses. The most effective attacks also employ social engineering tactics. Unit 42 has observed three prevalent techniques:

• Urgency and Fear: Attackers combine scare tactics such as identity theft, legal action or account suspension with extreme urgency to panic victims into clicking malicious links or revealing sensitive data without fully considering the consequences.
• Authority and Trust: Attackers impersonate legitimate figures, such as company executives, IT staff or university administrators to trick the victim into trusting them. These tactics are often assisted by the use of AI deepfakes.
• Distraction: Attackers take advantage of individuals’ desensitized attitudes towards routine actions such as clicking a link or scanning a QR code. When individuals are in a rush or in between tasks, attackers use these fleeting moments to strike.

These tactics demonstrate how attackers have mastered the psychological triggers required to manipulate users into surrendering assets. They also serve as a stark reminder that technology alone cannot prevent these attacks. True security requires a shift in personal mindset and proactive commitment to digital vigilance.

How Cognitive Bias Opens the Door

Outside of an attacker’s toolkit, certain inherent human traits can actually increase a person’s vulnerability. In her Threat Vector feature, Lisa Plaggemier, Executive Director of the National Cyber Security Alliance, discusses how overconfidence and the “illusion of control” create dangerous blind spots.

After surveying individuals across the globe, Plaggemier discovered an alarming trend: a vast majority of individuals rated their phishing detection skills as nearly perfect. This universal tendency to overestimate one's expertise is exactly what attackers take advantage of. When confidence exceeds actual competence, the risk of a breach increases exponentially.

Plaggemier’s studies highlight how individuals prioritize their own intuition instead of trusting in proven security protocols. By overvaluing personal habits, users internally diminish the worth of reliable technical controls. This confidence poses a significant risk because it can override a person’s intellectual knowledge by prompting them to ignore logic in favor of self-validation. It furthers the "contrarian mindset” where humans tend to reject educational messages that contradict their belief in their own abilities. Instead of learning or adapting to real-time situations, they adopt a defensive stance. This reaction creates a dangerous cycle that reinforces bad habits and leaves room for compromises.

The Future of Phishing

The advancement of AI has permanently altered the phishing landscape by erasing the misspelled words and awkward phrasing that once gave attackers away. This combined with the addition of deepfakes and voice mimicry has made it nearly impossible to distinguish a friend from a fraud through traditional means. As a result, these advancements raise the critical question on how individuals can truly stay protected.

The hard truth is that no one is ever 100% secure. The most persistent attackers will constantly find ways to innovate and adjust. Factors such as cognitive bias and the “illusion of control” tell us that we can accurately identify phishing attempts, but it’s clear that going strictly off intuition is a flawed approach. To survive the AI shift, we must stop relying on instinct and start relying on consistent efforts such as:

• Maintain a zero-trust mindset: Assume every unsolicited request requires verification
• Stay educated: Keep up with the latest phishing trends and AI-driven tactics
• Recognize psychological triggers: Be wary of messages designed to create fear or extreme urgency
• Practice cyber hygiene: Refrain from clicking unknown links and keep credentials secure

Unit 42’s Biggest Piece of Advice: Pause and Identify the Facts

No matter how convincing a message appears or how urgent a request feels, stop and truly assess the situation. Taking a moment to verify the source before taking any sort of action can stop an attack in its tracks.

Security is a continuous journey rather than a final destination. By choosing to analyze the information given rather than succumbing to an attacker’s strategies, you transform yourself from a potential victim into an active defender of your digital life.

Additional Resources

• Evolution of Sophisticated Phishing Tactics: The QR Code Phenomenon – Unit 42, Palo Alto Networks
• Myth Busting: Why "Innocent Clicks" Don't Exist in Cybersecurity – Unit 42, Palo Alto Networks
• Threat Vector – Palo Alto Networks
• Stay Secure: Why Cyber Hygiene Should Be Part of Your Personal Hygiene – Unit 42, Palo Alto Networks
• AI-Powered Polymorphic Phishing Is Changing the Threat Landscape – SecurityWeek
• 2024 IC3 ANNUAL REPORT [PDF] – Federal Bureau of Investigation
• Shield's Up: Guidance for Families – CISA