Analysts have come up with all sorts of data models and metrics to predict Bitcoin’s major cycles and peaks. Most of them predict lofty prices and bull markets that will last at least another year or more.

One metric suggests they might be wrong.

Let’s look at the Realized Cap HODL Waves, which splits holders into bands based on how long they’ve held their Bitcoins without moving them, then weighs each cohort by the price of those Bitcoins.

It’s the classic HODL waves plus a filter to weed out dead or lost Bitcoins.

Supercycle? HODL your horses

When you look at the wave for those who bought within one month or less, you see today’s peak inches closer to the long-term trendline of major market peaks.

While we have room to go higher, today’s number could be off by 20% or more. We could be a lot closer than you think.

Reason to panic?

No. Just another sign of the times.

1–3 month HODLers trended down as price went up, suggesting heavy selling from this cohort (again, possibly off by 20% or more in absolute terms).

Meanwhile, last week’s drop in long-term HODLers has accelerated. “Diamond hands” and bear market stalwarts have decided “fiat” isn’t as bad as they thought.

A Caveat

As with all metrics that say “realized” or “short-term” in their title, you have to fudge the numbers to account for the Wall Street ETFs.

Those ETFs can buy or sell any token at any time, independent of when their clients buy or sell their funds. When Bitcoins move in and out of those funds, they don’t necessarily reflect the intent of the person buying and selling. As such, the related on-chain metric loses its significance.

At roughly 20% of the total volume on any given day, those ETFs account for no small portion of the on-chain activity. The problem will get worse over time.

While you can’t compare today’s numbers with numbers from before January 2024, you can assume this metric still catches the general direction of behaviors. Good enough for us.

No cause for concern . . . yet

Does this mean you need to sell?

That’s a personal decision. I’m not doing that.

These charts reflect a single dimension of human behavior. Markets are far more complex.

That said, dismiss this information at your peril. Combined with other trends and behaviors we’ve seen in recent weeks, it’s enough to get you to rethink your assumptions about banana zones and never-ending bull markets.

I look at other trends, behaviors, and strategic considerations in the November 27, 2024, market update of my newsletter, Crypto is Easy.

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top Bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio and connect with him on Tealfeed.