The dream of a thriving lunar economy is not just about exploration or technology; it’s fundamentally about logistics.

In the previous article, I argued that building a successor to the International Space Station is a bit of a distraction and also diverts funding away from creating critically needed infrastructure to support human expansion beyond Earth.

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but mankind cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

As humanity sets its sights on establishing a permanent presence on the Moon, the viability of a lunar economy hinges less on capital investments or technological limitations and more on solving the critical bottleneck of logistics. We need a comprehensive roadmap to achieve this vision, with an emphasis on the importance of space infrastructure to make lunar development sustainable.

Beyond the logistics, there is a philosophical dimension to lunar development. The idea of humanity’s expansion across the solar system is not just about profit or science. Instead, it’s a critical move to safeguard human civilization. Various potential existential threats have been cited many times, such as nuclear war, asteroid impacts, climate change, or even a supernova in some ‘local’ stellar neighborhood.

The Earth, while a cradle, is ultimately vulnerable, and lunar development represents the opportunity to “seed” human civilization into space, necessary to avoid nihilistic annihilation and ensure that life on Earth contributes to something far greater.

The Moon serves as a stepping stone.

By establishing a sustainable lunar presence, we create the foundation for future interplanetary travel, resource acquisition from asteroids, and human expansion throughout the solar system. This sense of urgency — seeing the Moon as both a backup and a launchpad for humanity — grounds the logistical challenges in an existential purpose.

The single largest constraint to lunar economic development is launch frequency — not the technology or capital available. While SpaceX’s Starship represents the most ambitious heavy-lift solution we have, even under optimistic scenarios, delivering the volume of supplies required to sustain any meaningful lunar economy remains a logistical nightmare. A Starship-sized rocket could theoretically deliver up to 200 tons of cargo to the Moon.

As discussed in the previous article, if one mission were launched every day — a rate unprecedented in the history of space travel — the total annual cargo delivered would amount to only 73,000 metric tons. To put that into perspective, it’s comparable to what a single cargo ship can transport from port to port in a day here on Earth.

This inherent bottleneck severely limits the Moon’s capacity for population growth and development. To support a small lunar colony and economy you’d need close to 4,000 metric tons of goods, delivered on a frequent basis.

Under the most optimistic projections, only a small fraction could be delivered to the lunar surface each day — a striking comparison that underscores the limitations in meeting the needs of even a modest lunar community when you compare it to some small towns in Midwest America with populations of 5,000. They rely on existing freight networks (both rail and road) of which there is nothing set up in space to ensure lunar survival.

To put this in perspective, 2023 saw a record-breaking 223 orbital launches globally — less than one launch per day across all space agencies and companies combined. The idea of achieving daily launches to the Moon with a single system, SpaceX, while maintaining the complex logistics of unloading, refueling, and turnaround within a 24-hour cycle, stretches credibility.

Weather delays, technical issues, and the sheer complexity of coordinating such operations would make maintaining such a schedule virtually impossible.

To overcome this bottleneck, we need to go back to the first principle that created America in the first place — Logistics.

Instead of relying solely on rockets to complete the entire journey from Earth to the lunar surface, we need to leverage dedicated infrastructure at key points in the journey:

1. Super-Heavy Rockets to Low Earth Orbit (LEO): The first stage of the transport system involves launching cargo from Earth into LEO using super-heavy lift rockets like Starship.

2. Orbital Port for Cargo Transfer: An orbital port or space dock serves as a hub where cargo is transferred from these rockets to specialized spacecraft designed for the journey to the Moon. This infrastructure reduces the fuel burden on Earth-launched rockets, improving efficiency.

3. Lunar Freighters for LEO to Lunar Transport: Large, simple lunar-built “freighters” transport cargo from LEO to the lunar surface. Unlike rockets designed for re-entry, these freighters need no aerodynamic shape and can be fully automated, simplifying their design.

4. Lunar Mass Driver for Return Trips: Finally, the use of a mass driver — an electromagnetic rail system — eliminates the need for freighters to carry fuel for lunar lift-off. Instead, cargo and empty containers are catapulted back into orbit, leveraging the Moon’s low gravity.

This approach echoes historical parallels in transportation development, all started by Col. John Stevens, the father of the railroad. Just as the transcontinental railroad transformed America’s logistics capabilities beyond what would have been possible with ever-larger wagons, space infrastructure could revolutionize our ability to develop the Moon. It’s in this very notion that I’m going to paraphrase Henry Ford because we’re fast approaching this very mentality — “If I asked what the people wanted they’d have said bigger rockets.”

The key insight is that specialized vehicles and infrastructure for different stages of the journey are more efficient than trying to design a single vehicle to handle everything.

A crucial element of this new system is the orbital port (or space dock), which would function similarly to shipping ports on Earth. The port would be designed with three distinct sections: one for empty containers, one for full containers, and a loading area. Ships wouldn’t need to dock directly; they could maneuver into range and have their cargo captured and transferred by the port’s systems.

This standardization of cargo handling through space-adapted shipping containers could revolutionize space logistics just as containerization transformed global shipping in the 20th century. The efficiency gains from standardized handling and transfer procedures could dramatically reduce turnaround times and increase throughput.

Want to consider something completely off the wall? Most orbital ports and space docks will be automated but there will need to be redundancy operations in case of emergencies or manual handling.

Given this is logistics infrastructure and cargo transportation between space docks and the surface, does it make commercial and economic sense to develop existing skills of freight transport staff like truck drivers, crane operators, and dock workers in remote/tele-operating space dock with the correct zero-g/microgravity training and handling of cargo?

The answer may surprise you.

Freight operators, crane drivers, and dock workers possess valuable skills that directly relate to the handling of cargo and operating large mechanical equipment under complex conditions. These include:

1. Spatial awareness: The ability to visualize and manage large objects in constrained environments (e.g., truck loading/unloading).

2. Precision operation: Crane operators are adept at manipulating heavy machinery with precision — this translates well to remotely controlling robotic arms or cranes on the space dock.

3. Logistics management: Dock workers understand the importance of flow management, sequencing of cargo, and efficient transportation systems — critical skills for managing inter-dock cargo transfers in space.

4. Zero-G Training: Adapting the skills of traditional freight and crane operators to zero-g or microgravity environments will be the biggest challenge. However, training simulators (like the ones used for pilots or astronauts) could be developed to simulate the physics of handling cargo in a microgravity environment. Truck drivers and crane operators could be trained in both the physics of space (inertia, momentum, and velocity in microgravity) and remote handling through specialized courses.

5. Transferable Mindset: These workers are accustomed to operating in highly regimented, safety-conscious environments. Transitioning to space-based operations would require some adaptation but is conceptually similar to their day-to-day tasks — just in a different gravitational context.

6. Cost of Training: The cost of retraining truck drivers, crane operators, or dock workers in space-specific teleoperation might be significantly lower than training entirely new personnel from scratch or developing astronauts specifically for these roles. They already have operational experience, which reduces the need for basic training.

7. Leverage Existing Workforce: The space industry is growing, and using an already existing workforce of logistics professionals would allow the industry to scale more rapidly. Instead of relying entirely on highly trained astronauts for every operation, these trained Earth-based operators could handle day-to-day cargo management while only requiring astronauts for critical maintenance or exploration missions.

8. Reduced Risk and Cost in Space: Space is inherently high risk. By reducing the number of people in space, you reduce costs and risk. Earth-based operators reduce the need for on-site personnel, limiting the cost of life support, housing, and safety measures for space crews, especially for non-exploratory tasks like cargo handling.

When you factor all of this together, it doesn’t sound like a far-fetched idea at all, and you ensure that the backbone workforce of American logistics is not automated out of existence here on Earth but is secured for a continued future in space.

Now, we move on to the concept of a mass driver for lunar launch; this is not new, but past attempts have often stumbled over the issue of rail ablation. Railguns, by their nature, face significant wear and tear due to the immense forces and heat generated during each launch, a factor that has made them unsuitable for military purposes. However, what if the solution is already staring us in the face? Embrace the ablation!

Rather than trying to avoid or minimize the wear on the rails, we could simply repair them using the abundant resources available on the Moon.

Iron, chromium, and aluminum extracted from lunar regolith can be used to construct and repair these rails, with a fleet of automated or teleoperated construction rovers maintaining the infrastructure. This acceptance of ongoing maintenance transforms the problem of rail ablation from a prohibitive cost into a manageable operational expense, paving the way for sustainable mass driver technology on the Moon.

While coilguns might offer less wear and tear, their limited payload size and more complex construction make them less practical for large-scale cargo operations. The simplicity and scalability of railgun technology, combined with the abundance of materials needed for rail repair on the Moon, makes it the more practical choice despite the maintenance requirements.

While the immediate goal of establishing lunar infrastructure focuses on creating a sustainable lunar economy, the long-term vision goes much further. The systems developed for lunar freight could serve as the backbone for humanity’s future in space. With the infrastructure in place, the Moon could become a hub for assembling and launching large space stations, interplanetary spacecraft, and even colonial fleets to Mars and beyond.

However, focusing solely on increasing the capacity for lunar imports would be short-sighted. Instead, by using the Moon as a launchpad for broader interplanetary expansion, we can develop an industrial ecosystem that not only serves lunar residents but also acts as a stepping stone for the human colonization of the solar system. This modular, scalable approach — using orbital ports and space docks, mass drivers, and reusable freighters — lays the foundation for a future where humanity is no longer limited to Earth but becomes a multi-planetary species.

This isn’t anything new; we’ve done this all before on Earth, and it makes no sense at all to ignore what we’ve been good at for centuries in favor of untried and untested concepts like adding more space stations in orbit that don’t facilitate our expansion at all.

One of the key strengths of building a space logistics network is its market-driven nature. Unlike past attempts at space colonization, largely fueled by political motives, a real lunar economy would be built on profitability and market demand.

The idea is that once the infrastructure is demonstrated to be viable, a bidding race will begin among corporations and government agencies for lunar real estate — not just for tourism but also for research, data centers, and other high-value uses.

This focus on creating a self-sustaining market is what makes this far more credible than launching bigger and bigger rockets.

However, analogous to small towns in the American Midwest, which rely heavily on single stores for their sustenance, lunar settlements risk becoming stagnant, dependent solely on Earth-based imports.

The development of domestic lunar industries, such as shipbuilding, and the ability to leverage lunar resources for construction are therefore crucial to ensuring that the Moon becomes more than just a dependency on Earth — it must become a self-sufficient hub of human activity.

Lunar development would be akin to early terrestrial colonies and frontier settlements. Early lunar bases would mirror Antarctic outposts, requiring constant support from Earth and limited to research-focused objectives. Over time, as lunar infrastructure becomes more autonomous, settlements could emerge, diversifying into centers of production, research, and, eventually, export.

The gradual shift from dependency on Earth’s resources to local production would echo the evolution of early colonies on Earth but with the added challenges unique to the Moon’s environment, such as radiation protection and extreme temperature fluctuations.

Just like the first settlers in North America who relied heavily on supplies from Europe, early lunar settlers will depend on Earth.

However, the goal is to transition towards increasing self-sufficiency, eventually leading to a state where the lunar colonies could produce most of their necessities locally. This mirrors the transition from outposts to colonies on Earth, which gained independence over time as their economies grew and diversified. The lunar economy must similarly grow from dependency to autonomy.

Energy sustainability on the Moon is a significant concern due to the long lunar nights and lack of conventional energy sources. We would need to explore a variety of solutions, including solar arrays in peak sunlight areas, sodium batteries, regenerative fuel cells, and micro-nuclear reactors. The feasibility of producing sodium batteries directly from lunar resources is also a potential source of energy though likely to be unviable until a larger industry is developed.

In the interim, regenerative fuel cells, capable of storing solar energy during the day for use at night, and micro-nuclear reactors are proposed as the most effective options.

1. Solar Arrays on Peaks of Eternal Light: Certain areas near the lunar poles, called Peaks of Eternal Light, receive near-continuous sunlight, making them ideal for solar arrays. However, these areas are limited in size and would require significant infrastructure to harness effectively.
2. Regenerative Fuel Cells: These cells use electrolysis to store energy during the lunar day, which can then be used during the long lunar night. This solution is seen as more viable than transporting bulky batteries, as the components for fuel cells are easier to manufacture and transport.
3. Micro-Nuclear Reactors: Small, self-contained nuclear reactors can provide continuous energy, independent of solar availability. These reactors could be housed in protective shelters constructed from lunar regolith to shield against radiation and temperature extremes, making them an ideal energy source for uninterrupted power supply.

So you see, logistics are not just a challenge but the foundational pillar of a viable lunar economy.

The early focus must be on creating the infrastructure needed to enable sustainable development. This includes not just transportation systems but also construction methods that leverage local materials, such as building habitats from lunar regolith using 3D printing techniques.

The construction of habitats on the Moon will require innovative methods to address challenges like radiation and extreme temperature fluctuations. Early habitats could be built from repurposed lunar freighters and covered in lunar regolith to provide insulation and radiation shielding. This approach mirrors historical examples, such as the use of ships by early settlers as temporary shelters until more permanent structures could be built.

Forget magical lunar domes with crystal-clear views of the galaxy beyond, that is the stuff of science fiction.

Adding to the logistical and economic rationale, we can’t ignore compelling philosophical arguments for developing a lunar economy in the first place. Earth’s history of extinction events, from asteroid impacts to supervolcanoes to climate change, all serve as a stark reminder of our planet’s vulnerability and humanity’s fragility in the face of these events.

While technological and capital constraints are significant challenges, they are manageable. However, humanity’s survival may ultimately depend on establishing self-sustaining off-world settlements.

Without a foothold on the Moon, humanity faces an existential risk, whether from natural disasters, nuclear warfare, or unforeseen future threats. Developing a lunar economy and the logistics infrastructure is presented not only as a matter of exploration but as a moral imperative for securing the future of conscious life.

The Moon, in this vision, is not merely a distant satellite; it is humanity’s first step toward becoming a multi-planetary species.

The lunar economy is at a critical juncture, where the ambition to establish a permanent presence on the Moon collides with the limitations of current logistics capabilities. The multi-stage transport system outlined; combining super-heavy rockets, orbital ports, space docks, lunar freighters, and mass drivers; offers a promising path forward.

By embracing challenges like rail ablation and leveraging the Moon’s natural resources, we can establish a sustainable industrial base that serves not just lunar settlers but also humanity’s broader aspirations for space exploration.

With the philosophical and practical arguments laid out, the vision for a lunar economy becomes more than an ambitious project; it becomes a necessity.

It answers a fundamental question: Can humanity thrive beyond Earth? The Moon provides the opportunity to not only address logistical challenges but also to take the first steps toward a multi-planetary future, transforming human civilization from a species bound by Earth to a cosmic presence.

Launch frequency, not technology or capital, is the primary bottleneck for lunar development. It shifts the discussion from “How do we build bigger rockets?” to “How do we create efficient space logistics systems?” This reframing opens up new solutions and approaches that might otherwise be overlooked.

To end, the key takeaway here is that logistics and infrastructure are not just hurdles but the foundational pillars of a viable lunar economy. Without efficient and scalable logistics, the dream of a thriving, self-sustaining lunar community will remain out of reach.

With them, the Moon can become a gateway to the stars, opening up possibilities for exploration, economic expansion, and the survival of humanity in the cosmos.