Even after the recent pump, Bitcoin’s price has reached bearish milestones on trading charts and on-chain metrics.

Scary stuff.

Does that mean it will drop to $30,000 by July 31, 2024?

No. It will probably never drop that low.

As part of the chart I provide my newsletter followers, I have a black zone that’s a derivative of the Mayer Multiple, a popular metric for assessing how “hot” Bitcoin’s price gets.

For the sake of space and readability, I won’t display the entirety of Bitcoin’s history, but you can see the last seven years or so below and use your imagination for the previous seven.

Bitcoin’s price has never dropped below the bottom of the black band, even at its lowest depths.

Today, the bottom of that band is about $28,000. By the end of the month, it should be about $30,000.

If you’re betting on a $30,000 bitcoin, you’re betting on something that has never happened.

Or, to think about it differently, if you’re betting on a $30,000 Bitcoin, what could make that price realistic now, when it hasn’t been realistic for 15 years?

Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top Bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio and connect with him on Tealfeed.